Conference Championship Primer

After a wildcard weekend full of blowouts, the divisional round should prove to be much more competitive and entertaining. Last week two writers picked perfectly, but that is guaranteed to change after this weekend. Here are the current scores:

Scott: 9-1
Amanjit: 7-3
John: 6-4
Tristan: 6-4
Cole: 4-6

Here are our picks for the conference championship round, along with some detailed analysis of each matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals (4) at Kansas City Chiefs (2)

By Tristan

After doubting both these teams last weekend, it’s only right that I go into detail on what these teams do right, and what weaknesses they may have. Kansas City and Cincinnati actually played recently (Week 17) and so like a true nerd, I went back to watch the condensed game. Here were my takeaways:

• Orlando Brown was ruled out in warmups and it showed, forcing the entire offensive line to shuffle right before the game. Joe Thuney, who normally plays guard, had to play LT and Trey Hendrickson gave him fits all day and pressured Mahomes into two ill-advised throws that should’ve been intercepted.

• The Chiefs were up 21-7 at the end of the first quarter, but the Bengals clawed their way back after Ja’Marr Chase went nuclear. Chase ended the day with 11 receptions for 266 yards and 3 TDs.

• The final score was 34-31 Bengals as their defense held the Chiefs offense to just 3 points in the 2nd half.

This game was a close one, but ended via the Chiefs’ defensive penalty as the Bengals were able to run down the clock and kick the game-winning field goal. This AFC Championship game could look alot like that, and could come down to one play.

Let’s start with the Kansas City offense, who struggled early in the season but have rounded back into form. A big reason for this surge is their much-improved run-game and Pat’s willingness to take instant checkdowns. With defenses playing more two-high shells then ever, they have started to be more disciplined and patient on offense. This past weekend in the Divisional round was a perfect example, where Mahomes threw for 378 yards but did not attempt a throw over 20 yards downfield.The Chiefs have leaned into more multiple tight end formations which include tight ends Noah Gray and Blake Bell. This has allowed their run-game to evolve and therefore has kept defenses honest. Jerrick Mckinnon has been a revelation for the Chiefs and has given them some much needed juice. Tyreek Hill and Kelce are option 1A and 1B but Byron Pringle will need to continue to be a reliable target for Mahomes. Speaking of Mahomes, his pocket presence was on another planet vs. the Bills who consistently shuffled in the pocket to create more time, or escape to pick up positive yards. The Chiefs offense is star studded and is firing on all cylinders, But they face a Bengals defense that has made it tough sledding for their previous opponents. After just one offseason, the Bengals defense has transformed into a formidable force that has playmakers at every level of their defense. Their strength is in their defensive line where DJ Reader has really stepped up with Larry Ogunjobi on IR. He was an absolute monster last weekend and will make it difficult for the Chiefs to run the ball. A big chess-piece in this one will be cornerback Tre Flowers, who the Bengals like to deploy to cover tight ends. He did this in week 17 against Kelce, as well as in their wildcard game vs. Waller and the Raiders. It gave mixed results but it does force Kelce to work everyplay. Jessie Bates is a bonafide superstar at safety and has been able to make game-changing plays through the playoffs. Overall the Bengals have a solid defensive group, but are not better than the Bills defense, who couldn’t hang with the Chiefs last weekend.

The Bengals offense consists of the man, the myth, the legend, Joe Shiesty - who is the swaggiest QB in the league. Despite taking a playoff-record 9 sacks from the Titans, Burrow still managed to throw for 348 yards with a 75.7% completion. His poise, patience and focus are super impressive for a second year player (who is only one year younger than Mahomes), and is the reason why the Bengals are where they are today. The Bengals have an exciting young core of skill-positions in Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and of course Ja’Marr Chase. Burrow’s chemistry with Chase is one tier short of telepathy, as they are always on the same page, especially in the big moments. I’m not going to sugar coat this, the Bengals offensive line is a problem. A problem that should’ve doomed them last week, but thanks to the heroics of Ryan Tannehill, was erased. They faced a tough defensive front last week and face a similar presence with the likes of Melvin Ingram and Chris Jones. In order to work around their offensive line deficiencies, the Bengals should use quick game to maximize their RAC opportunities and force the Chiefs DBs to tackle. “Will Spags blitz?” has become THE weekly question for Chiefs fans. They understandably toned it down last week vs. the Bills and I could see a similar approach as Joe and company have gashed teams recently vs. the blitz. I’m more interested in their use of press-man as the Chiefs DBs got absolutely toasted last week and that style is susceptible to pass-interference penalties. They did do a nice job at doubling Bills’ receiver Stephon Diggs last week, and they’ll need to replicate on Chase, which can open up things for Higgins, Boyd and Uzomah The good news is that Tyrann Mathieu should be active in this one, after missing most of the Bills game due to a concussion. He is the leader of their defense, a tone-setter who is key for communication and organization. Let’s be honest for a second, the Chiefs defense will give up points; but they are also more than capable of forcing a turnover or getting a stop when the Chiefs need it most.

The team was pretty unanimous in their picks this game. I feel the Bengals’ offensive line is too unreliable and they are a couple years away from being a true contender. But my goodness, is Joe Burrow the real deal.

San Francisco 49ers (6) at Los Angeles Rams (4)

By Amanjit

The San Francisco 49ers had the Los Angeles Rams’ number in the regular season, winning both of their matchups, including an epic comeback win in week 18 to sneak into the playoffs. They’ve seemingly rattled the Rams brass enough that ticket sales for Sunday’s game were restricted to only those who reside in the LA area, in order to prevent a surge of 49ers fans taking over what’s meant to be a home game for LA. Regardless, the NFC Championship Game will prove to be yet another chess match between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, where the 49ers currently enjoy a six game winning streak against their division rivals.

San Francisco’s road to the NFC Championship was paved by their defense and running game. Holding Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to only 10 points is no mean feat regardless of weather conditions. This defense is built from the front, with Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead piling on relentless pressure to whichever QB dares to sit in the pocket. They had the 5th most sacks in the regular season, and demonstrated their prowess last week against the Packers when they forced Aaron Rodgers into numerous mistakes and poor decisions. The game plan will be similar this week against an already error-prone Matt Stafford who threw four interceptions against the 49ers in their regular season duels.

On the other side of the football, San Francisco’s running game powers their entire offense. Shanahan’s outside zone scheme is designed to lure opposing defenses in, and creates devastating results when he sprinkles in counters. Whether it’s Elijah Mitchell or the do-it-all Deebo Samuel carrying the ball, the 49ers run fast and hard, with excellent blocking from their entire team. However, their chances in this game will be dependent on QB Jimmy Garropolo’s ability to execute on passing plays despite his injured throwing arm. If ever there was a QB who’s value couldn’t be judged by stats it’s Jimmy. He makes numerous mistakes in seemingly every game he plays in, but his leadership qualities drive the rest of the team to excellence, and he does throw in the odd excellent drive including to tie the playoff clinching game against the Rams in week 18. In any case, the 49ers will want to run the ball as much as possible and not let Garoppolo be the deciding factor in this game.

The Rams philosophy to team building has been to forego draft picks in order to accumulate as much star talent as possible… And this season it propelled them all the way to the NFC Championship game. Expect star CB Jalen Ramsey to feast on any mistake by Garropolo, where stud pass rushers Aaron Donald and Von Miller will look to put the pressure on him right from the very start of the game. Their defense ranked third in both sacks and interceptions in the regular season - something that may strike fear into the hearts of 49ers fans who will be hoping for an error free game from their QB. An underrated component of this defense is edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who is able to impact games based on both his talent and because of the attention that offensive lines must typically dedicate to stopping Aaron Donald and Von Miller. Don’t be surprised to see him make an impact in decisive moments.

The LA offense is just as star studded as their defense, with star receivers Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. giving defensive backs across the league nightmares with their route running skills. QB Matthew Stafford came into the postseason leading the league in INTs, but has curiously been able to remain composed in the playoffs without throwing a single INT in their first two games. Whether his good form continues remains to be seen, but for now the decision to send draft capital and Jared Goff to Detroit in exchange for his services seems to be paying off. RB Cam Akers’ impressive return to the field was marred in part by his multiple fumbles against the Buccaneers last week, giving them a chance to come back into the game. Ball security will most likely have been hammered into him all week in practice, but with the margins in games such as these being as tight as they are, you have to expect the 49ers to make it a point of emphasis to test his resolve with attempted punchouts whenever he touches the ball.

All in all, the NFC Championship Game is shaping up to be a great one. We’re split in our predictions for a victor, but I have to go with the Rams. They simply have more talented players on both sides of the ball, and most importantly, they have the better QB. I expect the Rams to break the 49ers winning streak against them and book their place in the SuperBowl.

*References: NFL, PFF, theAthletic