Divisonal Round Primer

After a wildcard weekend full of blowouts, the divisional round should prove to be much more competitive and entertaining. Last week two writers picked perfectly, but that is guaranteed to change after this weekend. Here are the current scores:

Tristan: 6-0
Scott: 6-0
Amanjit: 5-1
John: 5-1
Cole: 3-3

Here are our picks for the divisional round, along with some detailed analysis of each matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals (4) at Tennessee Titans (1)

By Amanjit

How healthy is Derrick Henry and can the Bengals stop him from reinvigorating a Titans side that secured the first seed in the AFC despite having the lowest DVOA for any 1 seed in NFL history? Those were the first two questions on my mind when previewing this matchup, because while the Titans were able to survive his absence - thanks to an outstanding job done by my COTY pick Mike Vrabel - his return will strike fear into opposing defenses, coordinators and damn near anyone else who chooses to get in his way. Vrabel suggested that he’ll decide on the eve of the game whether Henry will be able to participate or not… Let me clear things up for everyone - Derrick Henry is going to play.

Coming into the game with the 5th best run defense in the league, the Bengals will feel that they’re as well equipped as any team in the league to slow Henry down (I genuinely don’t believe it’s possible to stop him when he’s 100%). However, losing DT Larry Ogunjobi to injury puts a serious dent in their excellent run defense, even though star DE Trey Hendrickson seems to have recovered enough from the concussion he suffered in the Bengals’ Wildcard matchup with the Raiders. Hendrickson’s ability to impact the game positively remains to be seen… And the Bengals will hope sending him straight back into action this weekend will be worth the risk.

The Titans won’t be entirely reliant on Henry’s all-world running ability, as AJ Brown’s return to the field late in the season seemed to provide the spark necessary for them to capture a first round bye for the playoffs. His ability to create separation and make spectacular plays when targeted is eerily reminiscent of his idol and now teammate Julio Jones. They’ll both have to be on their A-game if Titans QB Ryan Tannehill wants to have a shot at keeping pace with the avalanche of passing yards that is sure to come from his opposite number, Joe Burrow.

The Bengals offense works best when they place an emphasis on throwing the ball and coach Zac Taylor remains aggressive with his playcalling. WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be eager to attack a Titans defense that ranked 25th in total passing yards allowed during the regular season. When coupled with the icy cool, precision passer that is Joe Burrow… Titans fans have reason to be worried.

I’m predicting a shootout, a couple barnstorming Derrick Henry runs and some sensational WR performances from both Brown and Chase, in a game that has all the makings of a playoff classic. The Bengals are my pick to advance to the AFC Championship game, but as you can see by the split in the rest of the picks for this matchup, it can easily go either way.

San Francisco 49ers (6) at Green Bay Packers (1)

By Tristan

While the votes seem to be unanimous, this a tough matchup for the Packers, and one that could end up being a shoot-out. Although it seems like years ago, these teams did play earlier this season (in week 3) where the Packers edged out the 49ers 30-28. However, both teams evolved since then with the 49ers having a ton of momentum.

Let’s start with the 49ers offense where Kyle Shanahan has deployed various schemes in the run game and a passing game built on play-action and timing. They ranked 5th in both pass and run DVOA on offense, and had an appropriate run-first mentality against the undisciplined Cowboys last week. Deebo Samuel is their best player and I think the 49ers will implement the same strategy; a heavy dose of the run game, giving Deebo plenty of touches, in an effort to limit any costly mistakes created by Jimmy Garoppolo.

Joe Barry’s defense has been a mixed bag all season, and is 28th against the run according to DVOA. Schematically, they primarily rely on two-high shells in an effort to limit the big plays downfield, while giving up the underneath plays. The 49ers will happily take the underneath stuff all game as they have some of the most dangerous RAC players in the NFL; Deebo, Ayiuk or Kittle can all easily turn a 5 yard pass into a 20 yard gain. The counter to this is All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who has been a revelation for this defense and has been the surest takler in the NFL this season. The return of Jaire Alexander, Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus are important pieces of this defense - but their impact will be determined by their health.

Offensively, the Packers are a balanced team who have an MVP candidate in Aaron Rodgers at the helm. This offense ranked 2nd in passing and 8th in rushing according to DVOA, which is an impressive feat considering the rotating door at offensive line. The equalizer to poor offensive line play is having an elite quick passing game which Rodgers is exceptional at. The big news for this offense is the expected return of star left tackle David Bakhtiari, who hasn’t played since tearing his ACL in week 17 of last season. While I think his return will be beneficial, coming back immediately with few game reps is a big ask and this defensive line is no joke. The Packers will no doubt lean on both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, who have polar opposite sizes, but are both incredibly productive on the ground and through the air. The passing game should look to attack the 49ers corners, specifically the outside corners, who are the weakest position group on this roster.

The 49ers defense starts with their defensive line. Last week against the Cowboys, even after Bosa exited the game due to a concussion, the Niners’ pass rush was relentless, and ended the day with 5 sacks. They rotate their defensive line similar to a hockey line in order to keep everyone fresh and vs. the Cowboys, had 10 players who all played over 20 snaps. Players like Charles Omenihum and Arden Key are not household names, but have become solid contributors down the stretch and have excellent chemistry with Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa and DJ Jones. The entirety of the 49ers defensive front plays fast, which has allowed them to rank 2nd in run defense DVOA. As mentioned above, their cornerbacks are the weakest part of their team. Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans has done an excellent job at protecting his corners and mixing up his looks during true passing downs, but I’m not sure Rodgers and company will let them off the hook this time.

Los Angeles Rams (4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2)

By: Cole

There are some good reasons why we as a group are totally split on this one. Both of these teams won their wild card matchups in dominant fashion, with their defenses leading the way and crushing their opponents’ spirit in such a way that they never stood a chance. Against the league’s best rushing attack in Philadelphia, Tampa Bay consistently brought an extra rusher to force Jalen Hurts to throw, shutting out the Eagles for three quarters and holding them to under 100 rush yards on the day. The Rams made Kyler Murray look completely pedestrian, scoring on a horrible pick-six and holding the Cards to just 183 yards of total offense. There is a real argument to be made that these teams have the two best defenses in the league right now. Certainly the Rams have the most stars on paper, but the Buccaneers have the potential to force their opponent’s hand by being incredible run stoppers. These teams did play this season (Week 3), with the Rams coming out on top 34-24.

Tom Brady and the Bucs offense performed quite well last week considering all of their injuries on that side of the ball. While they may be further hampered by the loss of star right tackle Tristan Wirfs this week, they are hoping that Leonard Fournette, who tweeted “I will see you guys Sunday” earlier this week, will return and become Playoff Lenny again. On defense, the return of Lavonte David is huge, especially since it will allow them additional flexibility in their schemes.

With Cam Akers back and moving faster than anyone on the field, the Rams looked like a team that doesn’t need any draft picks against Arizona. OBJ was also good enough to merit a PED test, so that always tells you that Roger Goodell thought he had a good game. Von Miller’s sack was his first in the playoffs since Super Bowl 50, but you know that if Cam Newton was watching at home he still got shivers.

What can you expect in this game? A lot of passes and some exceptional defensive play. The Buccaneers firmly believe that other teams should not be allowed to run the ball in any form. This is going to force Matthew Stafford to throw, and while he is good enough to exploit this Bucs secondary, he is also prone to poorly-timed mistakes. The question for LA will be whether he can keep it together and use Kupp and OBJ as well as he did last week. For the Bucs, even if Fournette plays he may not be at 100%, and I question how Ke’Shawn Vaughan will fare against the Rams defense. In the pass game, Jalen Ramsey may be a nightmare matchup for Mike Evans, but I would take Brady and a group of nameless receivers against most teams (plus he still has Gronk!)

I think the bottom line in this game is that LA probably should win, but they will have to play a complete team game in order to do so, because Brady and the Bucs have zero intention of making things easy on them.

Buffalo Bills (3) at Kansas City Chiefs (2)

By: Scott Gray

I think it’s safe to say the Bills have officially returned to their 2020 form that everyone expected from them in 2021. With Josh Allen playing at the level that he is right now it’d be tough to definitively say who the best QB in the AFC is right now - him or Patrick Mahomes. Both have insane arm talent, unbelievable play recognition and they will without a doubt make any defense that blitzes them pay with shots downfield. This Bills offense did the unthinkable and was the first team EVER to score a touchdown on every single drive (excluding kneel downs), and they did it, in the playoffs, in sub zero temperatures, against a Bill Belichick led defense. But it’s not just Josh Allen carrying this offense, the emergence of Devin Singletary has given this Bills team a legitimate threat on the ground that defenses have no choice but to respect, which makes sitting in a two high shell problematic. This is as high powered of an offense as they come and they should cause all kinds of problems for a Kansas City defense who have been up and down all year.

While statistically the Bills defense was amazing this year, closing the season as the league’s number one defensive unit, let’s not forget they played the Jets twice, Dolphins twice (before they won 7 in a row) and mixed in some games against the Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Jags and Texans - all of whom have far less than average offenses. When Buffalo came up against stiffer offensive competition it’s fair to say their defense had issues - especially against teams who were committed to the running game.

Week 6: Tennessee Titans - 31 points & 362 yards allowed Week 11: Indianapolis Colts - 41 points & 307 yards allowed (5 TDs and almost 200 yards to Jonathan Taylor alone) Week 14: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 33 points & 488 yards allowed

Any casual NFL fan will tell you this Chiefs offense is absolutely not the same one that suffered that stunning loss early in the season. These are some BIG numbers from a defensive unit that is supposedly the best in the league, make you wonder if this rank is a fact of having a weak schedule or whether they are actually the number one defense everyone thinks they are.

As I mentioned the Chiefs are back to the Chiefs we’ve come to know all too well, speaking as a Chargers fan, I for one know way too well. This Kansas City team struggled out of the gate and it was all anyone in the football world could talk about. Teams had figured them out was the classic phrase. Well, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are back and ready to show everyone they still have a few tricks up their sleeve. In their last six games the Chiefs have only failed to put up 30+ points once (in an off game against a good Broncos defense they put up 28). Andy Reid has gone back to basics and found a ton of success running the ball out of their 2 TE set with Blake Bell and Noah Gray.

The big question on everyone’s mind is if Steve Spagnuolo will blitz Josh Allen and the Bills offense. During the regular season the Chiefs had the 8th highest blitz percentage in the league blitzing on just under 30% of plays. Over the past two seasons teams have figured out that blitzing Josh Allen is pretty much a death wish, so a huge story line in this game will be how much Spags dares to blitz Allen. I think it’s safe to say the Chiefs will blitz… because well… it’s Spags, but blitzing Allen all night could send the Chiefs packing if he gets on a roll. Whether or not they blitz Allen will be in for a true test against this Chiefs team that has quietly been one of the top defenses units since Week 7. Finishing the season as the league’s 8th best defense, a huge turnaround from a unit that got off to a shaky start.

*References: NFL, PFF, theAthletic