NBA 4th Quarter Storylines

We’re into the final quarter of the season. There’s been enough time to see how the teams look post trade deadline and how they’re playing heading into the playoffs. Here are some of the highlights of what to look for in the closing stretch of games this season…

Hiding in plain sight

• DeMar is playing out of his damn mind right now. He’s coming off a stretch in February where he was shooting over 50% from the floor and scoring 35 or more in 7 straight games - that broke Wilt Chamberlain’s record stretch of 6 games. It’s a niche record, but to have a dominant scoring stretch that surpasses a Wilt Chamberlain record is just evidence of how great DeMar’s been. DeRozan has carried Chicago all season and kept them in the top six seeds in the East; even after losing Lonzo, LaVine, and Caruso for long stretches. He’s been cold blooded at the end of games all year and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished the season with some top 5 MVP votes.

• Heat Culture is back. Bam Adebayo has been a force of nature since returning, and they have 4 guys with Lowry, Bam, Jimmy, and Herro who can win you a game on any given night. They’ve been crushed by injuries this year, but they’re so deep and well coached it just hasn’t mattered. All the names you don’t recognize on the roster can play, and everybody competes on defense 1 through 12 on the roster. My love for Jimmy Butler is well documented, but this year has been a team effort. Kyle Lowry has been a perfect fit in his first year in Miami. The trio of Martin, Struss, and Vincent has been great in their roles off the bench or in spot starts; Herro has taken a step up after struggling a little last year, PJ Tucker has been one of the highest percentage three point shooters in the league this year (44.9 % 3pt), even Dewayne Dedmon has been good for them in an extended role. The Heat are in first place in the Eastern Conference, and it looks like everything’s coming up Milhouse in Miami.

• Jokic is better this year than he was last year and he might not win the MVP because Joel Embiid and Giannis Antentokounpo are just that good. Any one of those three guys could win the MVP and deserve the award; the top PER (player efficiency rating) seasons of all time are Jokic #1 (32.3), Giannis #3 (32), and Embiid #12 (31.2). For context on how good those seasons are: #2 is Wilt Chamberlain in 1961-1962 (32.1), #10 is LeBron James in 2012-2013 (31.6) and #11 is Steph Curry in 2015-2016 (31.5) when he was the unanimous MVP.

Silver Linings and Shooting Stars

• The Suns are a machine, and even without CP3 they look great. Everyone is better on this team this year and they have upgraded a few backups since last season’s trip to the finals. Phoenix is the best team in the league. That being said, they don’t have a chance of making a deep playoff run without Chris Paul coming back and looking as good as he did before his injury. They should really pay Deandre Ayton… but they’ve looked really good with Bismack Biyombo and JaVale McGee too.

• The Grizzlies are so much fun to watch. They’re talented, they’re tough, and they talk a ton of shit. Ja Morant might be the most exciting player to watch in the league right now and there hasn’t been a youth movement with this high of a ceiling since the 2011 OKC Thunder (the recent Celtics teams that went to conference finals and the D-Rose Bulls both played too many vets to be included). Everyone on the team is better, and even JJJ’s shooting slump has come in his best defensive season where he’s improved his interior scoring. They haven’t had Dillon Brooks for most of the year, but the ascension of Desmond Bane has made it no big deal. Memphis is talented and hyper competitive, and they’ve built this team from the ground up. This team isn’t contending soon, they’re contending now. I would still not trade Ja Morant for LeBron James.

• The Raptors are good and Scottie Barnes is so much better than they could have hoped. Whatever your wildest dreams were of Scottie, the scoring has been unexpected this early. He doesn’t take bad shots, he’s running the point at 6’8”- 6’9” and when he’s off-ball he makes sound decisions that help the team. Barnes is guarding 1 through 5 already and Toronto has been leaning on him heavily in what has mostly been an 8 man rotation this year. He’s a great passer, good around the rim, and plays with great awareness on offense and defense. Siakam has bounced back to have his best season and has been unlocked in this positionless roster - running point and playing center while surrounded by guys like OG, Barnes, Trent Jr, FVV and whichever of Birch or Boucher that is on the floor. Gary Trent Jr has been the shooter he was advertised to be and a great add to their backcourt. Fred VanVleet is their most skilled player, a deserving All Star, and the heart and soul of the Raptors. It’s been a ‘good vibes’ team all year and they play hard every possession. When everyone is healthy, the Raptors can push any team to the brink on any given night.

Indecent proposals

• New Orleans has been pretty wrapped up in the depressing Zion saga this season, but I hope they appreciate the silver linings. Brandon Ingram is good. He’s been a better passer and defender this season, and we already know he can score. The Pelicans are better after the CJ McCollum trade, and his scoring and playmaking has made everything easier for the rest of the team.. CJ was functionally the backup point guard in Portland for years. With Devonte’ Graham going to a 6th man role and the impressive play (and incredible defense) of rookie Herb Jones, the Pelicans could spoil some seasons in the closing stretch. They have a chance to catch the Lakers for the 10th spot and make the play in. Their updates on Zion’s foot healing means we could get a fully healthy Zion next season on a team that looks kind of good on paper? We could even get a Zion sighting if they finish as the 10 seed. Cautious optimism feels appropriate.

• James Harden needs to make this his last ugly public breakup. And yes, I am aware of Kyrie’s foolishness. Whatever the reasoning, Harden has quit on two teams he didn’t want to be a part of anymore within a 12 month stretch; and he’s looked great since he got to Philly after dogging it towards the end in Brooklyn. The Sixers are dangerous, and considering Simmons hadn’t played all year Harden is essentially taking Seth Curry’s spot in the rotation. The early returns are great, and James Harden over Seth Curry is obviously a talent upgrade. Philly is gonna be awesome, Harden is still going to get paid - but this had better result in some deep playoff runs or else it’s going to be labeled the same old story. If their playoff run ends in another James Harden flameout, all bets are off for what could happen to this team going into next season.

Comeback Kids

• The Celtics were fighting themselves to start the season, but they’ve been so good since January 1st, that they might have legitimately changed their fate midseason. Something has clicked for Jayson Tatum, and he’s been playing the best basketball of his career in the last two months. He went for a forceful dunk against the Hawks while down double digits at home this week, and the team continued to play hard despite a tough night shooting the ball. The Celtics would have quit on the game in December/November, but instead Tatum was the best player on the floor and took Boston back from down 17. Oh, and he just scored 54 points against the Nets in a game where he outdueled Kevin Durant. They’ve found their identity - what Udoka has crafted with Rob Williams as an off-ball help defender and an 8 man rotation that switches has been the best defense in basketball (103.3 DEF RTG since January 1st). Derrick White has been a revelation for them, he’s an incredible defender who moves the ball and is capable of putting the ball on the floor and making plays for himself and others. Jaylen Brown is one of the best wings in basketball, and his versatility on defence coupled with his ability to score the ball makes him the X factor for Boston’s chances in the playoffs. Grant Williams has become a reliable shooter (44% 3pt this season) who’s better across the board and got in shape to play more of a 3-4 role rather than an undersized 4-5. Al Horford looks rejuvenated, Marcus Smart has committed himself to playing point guard, even Nesmith and Prichard have looked more confident and engaged. It looks like a team who knows who they are and what they do well. This is one of the best stretches this Celtics core has played in years, so of course the injuries to Nesmith and Brown happened. But something has shifted in the team, and they exude a quiet determination and passion that seems to match the philosophy of their head coach and the attitude shifts of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

• Dallas was bad to start the year. Luka was out of shape, the defence was a mess, and rotation players weren’t hitting shots. Porzingis getting touches in the post wasn’t helping their spacing issues and some of their lineups needed ironing out. Since the New Year, Dallas has the second best defense in the league (106.6 DEF RTG since January 1st) and they are doing it as a team. Finney-Smith has been doing yeoman’s work as a defender every night, don’t get it twisted, but for the most part everyone on the team competes hard on defense - even Luka (since playing himself into shape). Dinwiddie has turned his season around for them coming off the bench as another player who can make things happen with the ball in his hands, and Brunson has been so good all year he might have teams throw him some serious money this off season. Most importantly, Luka is back to form as one of the best players in the league, and his scoring displays since the Porzingis trade should remind everyone that Doncic could give your favourite team 50 on any night. Dallas has a tough defence, improved shooting, and some players capable of making some plays for themselves for the first time since they’ve had Doncic as their star. Jason Kidd has done a great job getting this team together and they are a threat to anyone in a 7 game series.

Fanbases considering ‘the eternal sunshine of the spotless mind’ memory wipe

• The Lakers aren’t very good. Every move made since the Anthony Davis trade has hurt them with the exceptions of adding Stanley Johnson, Malik Monk, and Carmelo Anthony. This isn’t going to get better, and they’re at serious risk of falling out of the play-in. LeBron has been awesome and so far it just hasn’t mattered. LeBron and AD have played less than 546 minutes together this season, and despite all the issues this team has, there’s no bigger hurdle they’ve had to overcome than games missed from AD. They can’t shoot (34.5% 3pt since January 1st is 22nd in the league), and they don’t play defence (113.8 DEF RTG 20th in league since Jan 1). I don’t care who LeBron allegedly said he wanted to play with, it’s the GM’s job to pick up the phone and make deals happen (or not). If Pelinka really can’t say no to his star’s requests, he isn’t good at his job. Miami said no to LeBron, the Lakers said no to Kobe in the 2000’s, Chicago told Michael Jordan no. It’s happened before. Nothing could happen this trade deadline because no one wanted to trade with them, not because the Lakers didn’t want to make a trade. I don’t know what more to say, they look like they’ve quit and there’s been more grimaces than good plays in the last two months.

• The Knicks season isn’t what fans had hoped for but if they wanted to be honest with themselves this is part of getting out of basketball purgatory. Wouldn’t Knicks fans have agreed that a winning season and a struggling season where RJ got to blossom would be good outcomes for their future if you had asked them 3 years ago? Now they feel entitled to overachieving? After all those years of losing? Let me explain: they drafted RJ Barrett #3 overall but felt robbed they missed out on Zion and Ja. The team overperformed last year and have come back to earth - Randle’s good shooting last year was the best season in his career, and his league worst jump shooting numbers this season are probably going to be his worst shooting number of his career… Most guys don’t have their best shooting seasons followed up by their worst shooting seasons, so things will most likely come back to the median next season. RJ Barrett seems to have taken a real jump amidst the season’s chaos, and looks like the Knicks’ best player right now. He’s been playing like a legitimate young star for months, and they should be excited about his future. If the Knicks make the 10-7 seed next year, I wouldn’t be surprised. Their players around the margins should be better, and losing Derrick Rose shouldn’t make or break your team’s success in 2022. Play the young guys and see what you have, then build with the guys you know can play and the guys who show you something over the rest of the season. Why not see what Quickley, Reddish, Robinson, Toppin and Barrett have for you for stretches during games? It’s not like you can’t play the old guys too. RJ Barrett was supposed to become your best player, and it looks like it’s happened - that’s supposed to be a good thing. Will the front office want to build the way they said they did before their first winning season since 2012? We’ll see. Thibs getting COTY last year and fired this year would be an all-time Knicks move.

Quick Hits

• Utah is good when they have their two all stars and maybe not so good without them.
• Charlotte really misses Gordon Hayward.
• This is the only season in Steph Curry’s career where he has shot under 41% from three.
• Draymond looks as important to Golden State’s offence as he does their defence.
• Milwaukee kicks ass with their big three, but have struggled without the trio intact.
• Michael Porter Jr had back surgery this season and might play before Jamaal Murray?
• Franz Wagner is really good and Orlando has a sneaky-fun young roster.
• This year’s rookie class might have been an all-timer.
• The Pelicans have been under-the-radar good since Jan 1st.
• Cam Johnson is shooting 44.8% from three on six attempts per game?
• The Timberwolves lead the league in made threes at 947?
• Basically everyone who made big moves at the deadline looks like they made the right decision.
• Brooklyn being a possible 7-8 seed is going to really mess up the East’s playoff picture.
• The Clippers just won’t go away and Tye Lue has got to be in the running for COTY.
• The Cavs have lost too much perimeter scoring to be a real threat, LaVert hasn’t helped the way they’d hoped.

*References: Statmuse, nba.com and basketball reference