2022 NHL Playoff: Conference Finals Preview

After teams were so evenly matched in Round 1, things somehow got more wide open in Round 2. Let’s have a quick comparison of my picks and the results of each series.

Florida Panthers (1st in Atlantic) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd in Atlantic)

Pick: Tampa in 7
Result: Tampa in 4
Synopsis: Andrei Vasilevskiy decided that he didn’t want another close series, so he completely shut down the best offense that the league has seen in years.

Carolina Hurricanes (1st in Metropolitan) vs. New York Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan)

Pick: New York in 6
Result: New York in 7
Synopsis:** Frederik Andersen never returned despite discussion that he might be ready for Round 1, and the Carolina offense wasn’t enough to get much going against Igor Shesterkin.

Colorado Avalanche (1st in Central) vs. St. Louis Blues (3rd in Central)

Pick: Colorado in 6
Result: Colorado in 6
Synopsis: St. Louis played really hard and gave Colorado a serious scare, but they had some tough luck, losing Jordan Binnington to injury and coming up just short.

Calgary Flames (1st in Pacific) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2nd in Pacific)

Pick: Calgary in 5 Result: Edmonton in 5 Synopsis: I guess that’s what I get for betting against McJesus, who’s turning this team into the 1980s Oilers, with the team putting up 4+ goals in all five games against the Flames.

Now let’s take a look at the conference finals matchups!

Eastern Conference:

Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd in Atlantic) vs. New York Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan)

Sorry for stating the obvious, but Tampa Bay looked unstoppable against Florida. In contrast, New York has just scraped by, facing elimination in five different games, but it is a testament to them as a group that they’ve emerged victorious every time. After a shaky series against Pittsburgh, Igor Shesterkin looked much more like himself against Carolina, holding them under three goals in six of seven games. Up front, the deadline acquisitions of Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano have added a lot of depth scoring; and with Filip Chytil chipping in three goals in his last two games, all of a sudden the Rangers have options. This also takes some pressure off of the top line, and could potentially allow Mika Zibanejad, who has been incredibly dynamic, to have some more space. Thankfully for Tampa, they have a defense corps capable of matching up against anyone. Tampa’s ability to always have either Victor Hedman or Ryan McDonagh on the ice against the other team’s top two lines gives them a sense of security, and allows their forwards to look for opportunities to counterattack. Thinking of the forwards, they haven’t actually been putting up the gaudy stats that other teams’ top forwards have (except for Kucherov, who just looks like he finds the playoffs very, very easy). However, what has impressed me most is how much they’ve bought into the idea of doing whatever it takes to win. Clearly they know what it takes, but it never looks like any of their top guys are resting on their laurels in the defensive zone. This starts from the top, with captain Steven Stamkos diving left and right to block shots despite his brutal injury history. The whole group has looked so composed that they fill each other with immense confidence. I think the Rangers are good, but I don’t think they can compete with a dynasty like Tampa.

Pick: Lightning in 5
Key stat: Tampa held Florida under two goals in every game of their series despite Florida scoring two or less only three times in the entire regular season.

Western Conference:

Colorado Avalanche (1st in Central) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2nd in Pacific)

From the start, I’ve said that I think this is Colorado’s year. There were certainly moments against St. Louis when they tried to make me wrong (the blown lead in Game 5 comes to mind), but ultimately they were in control for most of the series. Their top lines are scoring at an impressive clip, with Nazem Kadri backing up his impressive regular season and Nathan MacKinnon only a couple of speed-building crossovers away from taking over the game in any given moment. Ultimately, I suspect that their success in this series will hinge on their ability to tighten up defensively at key times. This is especially true given the level at which Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been playing. The pair have 26 points apiece, which is absolutely obscene considering the playoffs are only half over. For reference, the last forward to win the Conn Smythe was Ryan O’Reilly in 2019, and he only recorded 23 points in the Blues’ entire Cup run. The pair each have as many assists as the next closest person (Zibanejad) has points, and McDavid is already +19. This means that on average, the Oilers have scored over 1.5 more even-strength goals per game than they’ve allowed when he has been on the ice. He’s also done all this against LA and Calgary, both of which are very defensive-minded teams. Evander Kane is also leading the playoffs in goals with 12, and Zach Hyman has added eight tallies of his own to help spread out some of the offense. Shockingly, Mike Smith was also very good in several games against the Flames, straight-up outplaying Jakob Markstrom and giving the Oilers a key advantage in the series. Whether he can be the superior goaltender against Darcy Kuemper will be another question, and has the potential to be a deciding factor in the series. Ultimately, I’m going to give the edge to Kuemper, and in turn, the Avs, who I think have a stronger defensive group, but my complete expectation is that the Oilers will give them everything they can handle.

Pick: Colorado in 7 Key stat: Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar both have an impressive 13 points in 10 games and they’ve still only scored half as many points as McDavid and Draisaitl

*References: NHL.com, Sportsnet