2022 NHL Playoff Rd 1 Primer
With the NHL playoffs set to kick off this evening, it feels safe to say that picking a champion this year is as much of a crapshoot as ever. It has been a long time since there was this much disparity between NHL clubs, especially in the Eastern Conference, where the playoff teams have essentially been locked in since Christmas and remarkably all hit 100 points. I certainly feel like the East could go a number of ways, but I do feel confident that the champion will come out of the Atlantic Division. In the West, the big question is “can anyone stop Colorado?”, and the answer, I suspect, is “no”. With these thoughts in mind, let’s take a look at the first-round matchups.
Eastern Conference:
Florida Panthers (1st in Atlantic) vs. Washington Capitals (Wild Card 2)
Few to no questions here, Florida should win. They were the NHL’s finest team in the regular season, their stars have been incredibly consistent and their depth is unprecedented. Washington is still a strong team, and Alex Ovechkin is an ageless wonder, but some of their other stars such as Nicklas Backstrom (who just had the worst statistical year of his career by far) are beginning to decline. Washington has also faced goaltending issues at various times during the season, and were rumoured to be involved in trade talks around the deadline but didn’t pull the trigger. At the end of the day, I don’t think that a better goalie would have saved them here. While it’s not an everyday occurrence, the Panthers do have times when Sergei Bobrovsky is not playing up to his usual standards, and Washington’s only hope is to capitalize (get it) on these chances should they arise.
Pick: Florida in 5
Key stat: Florida had 12 players score over 35 points in the regular season, Washington had 5
Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd in Atlantic) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd in Atlantic)
As a huge Leafs fan, I’ve been looking for ways for about a month for the Leafs to avoid this matchup, but here we are. Could the Leafs win? Absolutely. They could beat anybody. Will they win? I have to say no. Tampa is just too strong. Here’s a scary thought for you - two years ago, Tampa won the Cup and Steven Stamkos played one shift in the playoffs (although it’s worth mentioning that he scored more goals [1] in that shift than Marner did in 7 games in last year’s playoffs). This year, Stamkos decided that it might be fun to have the most points of his career (104) and end any suggestion that he was washed up. Ridiculously, Tampa has somehow managed to retain its top 2 forward lines, top 4 defensemen, and top-of-the-heap goalie from both of their cup runs as well. For Toronto, Auston Matthews is undeniably the best goal scorer in the league, and somehow he comes into the series as the second-hottest player on his line after Mitch Marner. Despite the brilliant play of Matthews and Marner, what really separates this Toronto team from years past is the defense corps. Never in my life have I watched a Leafs game and felt like they didn’t have to hide a pair, but I truly feel that way now. Sadly, the same cannot be said for Jack Campbell, who I feel could be the Leafs’ downfall in this series.
Pick: Tampa Bay in 6
Key Stat: Tampa Bay has won 20 playoff series since the last time the Leafs won 1
Carolina Hurricanes (1st in Metropolitan) vs. Boston Bruins (Wild Card 1)
This series should be very fun to watch as these teams have a lot of playoff history. When healthy, Carolina is definitely the better team, especially now that Tuuka Rask has fully retired. Year after year though, Boston just seems to get it done in the playoffs, and it has to do with the play of their stars. Everyone knows that the Perfection Line is going to show up. Are Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov prepared to do the same for the Canes? On the flip side, can the Bruins’ bottom six keep up with Carolina? Will a defense corps that no longer boasts Torrey Krug or Zdeno Chara hold up against relentless forechecking in a long series? Despite all these questions, the largest one looming in this series is who will play in net for the Canes. Frederik Andersen is out for at least the first game, and he has historically been a forgettable playoff goalie. Antti Raanta put together a strong season, but he is nursing an injury as well and is listed as Questionable for game 1. Does anyone else think it smells like upset in here?
Pick: Boston in 6
Key Stat: Frederik Andersen has lost the last 6 playoff series in which he has been the starting goalie.
New York Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (3rd in Metropolitan)
These two teams are a study in contrast, with New York as the young up-and-comers who were arguably the pleasant surprise of the league this year, and Pittsburgh as the dynasty that has done and seen it all. However, they put in similar statistical seasons, both ranking in the top 5 in goals against but outside the top 10 in goals for. On paper, I would have to give the edge to the Penguins, but the Rangers have the speed and youth to wreak havoc in a long series. The Rangers also have Igor Shesterkin, who was the best goalie in the league this year from a statistical standpoint, and Pittsburgh will be without star goalie Tristan Jarry to begin the series. With Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang’s contracts both expiring after this season, we may be getting into Last Dance territory for the Pens, and it would be a shame to see their run end in the first round. However, I expect this series to be very evenly matched and if the Rangers get ahead early because Jarry is hurt, the Penguins may never catch up.
Pick: Rangers in 7
Key Stat: Igor Shesterkin ranked 1st in the NHL in both save percentage and goals against average in the regular season
Western Conference:
Colorado Avalanche (1st in Central) vs. Nashville Predators (Wild Card 2)
Nashville had a chance to avoid this matchup in the last game of the season, but they blew a 4-0 lead against Arizona and fell headlong into the team that swept them in last year’s playoffs. The main difference I see from last year is that Colorado has somehow become more dominant, which is too bad because I think Nashville has really improved this past year as well. Sadly for them, it will not be enough, and they will “waste eight days” as Darryl Sutter so lovingly put it. Colorado has any number of stats I could break down, but I’ll save that for the later rounds.
Pick: Colorado in 5
Key Stat: Roman Josi was actually the leading scorer in this series in the regular season with 96 points
Minnesota Wild (2nd in Central) vs. St. Louis Blues (3rd in Central)
This series has serious barn-burner potential. Both of these teams have been very impressive since the trade deadline, and have gone 15-3-2 combined over their last 20 games. It’s a pity that they have to play each other in the first round, but it will make for good content in a Western Conference that may have some blowout series. St. Louis quietly scored the third-most goals in the league this year, and also had the second-best power play and fifth-best penalty kill. Much of this was driven by Vladimir Tarasenko’s return to form, the breakout campaigns of Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, and the brilliant low-cost acquisition of Pavel Buchnevich. Minnesota was largely propelled to success by the incredible play of Kirill Kaprizov, who led the team in scoring by a whopping 23 points, although Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello both had career years as well. Both teams have had battles for the crease, with Ville Husso grabbing the reins for the Blues and Cam Talbot seemingly rounding into form once he faced the pressure of being overthrown by Marc-Andre Fleury. At the end of the day, I think that St. Louis probably has the better skaters, but if Fleury can put in another timeless playoff performance, he should show everyone why he has gone 9-2 since being acquired from Chicago.
Pick: Minnesota in 7
Key Stat: Kirill Kaprizov (47 goals, 108 points) would have led the Blues in goals by 13 (Tarasenko had 34) and points by 26 (Tarasenko had 82)
Calgary Flames (1st in Pacific) vs. Dallas Stars (Wild Card 1)
Shoutout to anyone who picked Calgary to win the Pacific Division at the start of this year. Out of nowhere, they became a locked-in top team in the conference, driven by the resurgence of soon-to-be-UFA Johnny Gaudreau, who combined with Matthew Tkatchuk and Elias Lindholm to score 40 goals apiece, a seemingly undoable feat in an NHL led by lines with two stars on them rather than three. With a very complete team that includes a strong defense corps and star goalie Jakob Markstrom, the Flames certainly look the part of a cup contender entering the playoffs. In contrast, Dallas had a much rougher path to the playoffs, relying on the play of their “second-liners”, which is to say that Jason Roberton, James Pavelski and Roope Hintz score most of their goals but get paid way less than Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin. Somewhere along the line, the Dallas defense has also gone from being considered strong to extremely average, ranking 14th in the league in goals against and resulting in Dallas finishing the season as the only playoff team with a negative goal differential. I consider Calgary to be the better team in every phase of the game, but hey Dallas could always steal a game or two.
Pick: Calgary in 5
Key Stat: Gaudreau, Tkatchuk and Lindholm are the first line to all score 40 goals since 1994
Edmonton Oilers (2nd in Pacific) vs. Los Angeles Kings (3rd in Pacific)
Nobody expected the Kings to be in the playoffs this year, and one key benefit is that all of the pressure is on Edmonton. Previewing this, question one on everyone’s minds is whether McDavid and Draisaitl will show up in the playoffs this year or whether LA can shut them down like Winnipeg did in last year’s postseason. Question two will be whether the Edmonton goalies, who for all intents and purposes are not good, can hold it together. In the long haul of a playoff run, I think that McDavid and Draisaitl can win series by themselves, but the goalies are going to get exposed at some point. Luckily for the Oilers, for this round they’ve drawn an LA team decidedly lacking in firepower, whose leading scorer (Anze Kopitar) had 67 points, making them the only team in the playoffs without an 80-point scorer. For LA to compete in this series, they’ll have to capitalize on their superior depth and goaltending, two things which can certainly win you some games this time of year.
Pick: Oilers in 6
Key Stat: Leon Draisaitl (second in Oilers’ regular-season scoring with 110 points) had more than twice as many points as the Oilers’ third-leading scorer, Zach Hyman, who finished with 54 points.
*Sources: NHL.com, CBS Sports