2022 NHL Trade Deadline

While the trade deadline is now extremely near (March 21), as always we’re still waiting to see how the big trades will turn out because they tend to be left to the final hours. This, of course, is partially due to the fact that every dollar in the NHL counts. Each day that a trade rental spends on their existing team is another day that their new team doesn’t have to count them against the cap. Similarly, for sellers, they want to make sure they wait as long as they can in order to bring in the most attractive offer possible.

So far, the biggest deal we’ve seen was the one that sent Tyler Toffoli to Calgary, but there are far bigger storylines out there. I always hate speculating about people around the deadline and then having to watch them stay with their existing team, so I’m going to do something a little different. Here are five players that I guarantee will find a new team by next Monday, and five teams who absolutely plan to make further moves.

Players:

Ben Chiarot

Personal feelings about this player aside, this one is the absolute biggest lock of them all. Montreal is dying to lose more games, and Chiarot is a good player on an expiring contract. The asking price is going to be high here, but once Monday rolls around, Montreal will take whatever the best offer is. Chiarot is affordable at $3.5 million and Montreal will obviously not be concerned if they have to retain half of that money for the rest of this year. He’s also a player who’s built for playoff hockey (aka he’s a big defensemen who loves nothing more than cross-checking people without having to worry about consequences), which he proved while logging over 25(!!) minutes per night in Montreal’s cup finals run last spring. The Panthers would be a good match here because they’re the team who should be the most concerned about being hard to play against, given that they’ll likely have to play Tampa in the second round. On the flip side, I could see Tampa making a sneaky play for him as well.

*Update: since this article was written, Florida actually did trade for Chiarot

Claude Giroux

It feels strange to be putting a veteran player with a no-move clause who has only ever played for one team on this list, but Claude Giroux should run from the hellfire that is the Flyers right now and not look back. There are a few things to consider here. Giroux is 34 and has never won a cup, but he still produces at a high level, creating a trifecta of reasons why he might want to leave. Also, Philadelphia is already down their next two second-round picks due to previous trades, so they could use the draft capital. Finally, the Flyers have big extensions for Joel Farabee and Sean Couturier kicking in next season, and no other big contracts coming off the books now that they’ve re-signed Rasmus Ristolainen. This means that something’s gotta give, and all signs point to Giroux. Due to his full no-move clause, Giroux has the ability to veto any trades and I’ve only seen him linked to first-place Colorado, who are presumably an attractive option for him. Given that the Avalanche just cleared out some cap room by trading Tyson Jost, I see no reason why they wouldn’t be the best fit.

Mark Giordano

Here’s my favourite player on this list. As we continue to raid the league’s basement, we arrive in Seattle. While the Kraken may be reluctant to give up the first captain in the history of their franchise, they have also taken a very future-oriented approach so far in their tenure in the league and they have not yet found a way to accrue first-round picks like Vegas did. Sure, Giordano is 38 and has lost a step, but he’s still a very credible player capable of anchoring a second pairing on a good team. He’s also a guy who deserves to win a cup more than almost anyone, having crafted a storied, Norris-winning career after entering the league as an undrafted free agent. I like the Rangers as the frontrunners here because they likely have the weakest D corps of any of the teams in contention.

Phil Kessel

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: an older guy who can still score on an expiring deal with a team that can eat half of his contract. The only difference here is that Kessel may not want to move as he adores the anonymity that the desert offers, but with that said, he has an eight-team trade list and he’ll be moving to one of those teams. Apparently, Arizona is only looking for a 3rd-rounder, so it will come down to who’s on the list and has $3.4M in cap space. The team that trades for him will also want to make sure that they have a good two-way centreman for him to play with as well, because Phil never was much of an “own zone” guy. Despite having just listed them, I like the Rangers to be in the mix for Kessel as well if they’re on his list because they lack the secondary scoring that he can provide.

Marc-Andre Fleury

I’ve put Fleury last here despite him being one of the most interesting players on the list because his trade status is the most in doubt out of all of these guys. This is because Chicago has publicly said that they will only trade Fleury if he wants to be traded. My assumption here is that he does in fact want to move out of Chicago, where he never wanted to be in the first place. Chicago is likely also desperate to make a move of this nature because they need to save some face, having watched their team flounder all season despite trading their first round pick as part of an enormous package to get Seth Jones. With several teams (Toronto) desperate for a goalie and Fleury likely to walk after this season anyways, the whole thing just makes too much sense not to happen. Despite my wish to see Fleury in blue and white, Washington likely makes the most sense here as long as Chicago is prepared to take a contract (looking at you, Michal Kempny) in return.

Teams:

*I’m locking in Giroux to Colorado right now so I won’t even include them just to be sporting

Toronto Maple Leafs

No sense burying the lede. The Leafs are in win-now mode and absolutely, 100% do not have a complete enough team to beat both Tampa and Florida in the playoffs, which they will almost certainly have to do. After being burned by the Nick Foligno trade last year, Kyle Dubas will not want to give up a first-rounder, and he’s likely not prepared to part with Rasmus Sandin, Timothy Liljegren or Nick Roberston, so let’s discuss what’s left. In my opinion, what the Leafs have to offer/want to offer is Petr Mrazek, Justin Holl and a handful of second-round picks. Bearing in mind that neither Holl nor Mrazek hold any value at all, that may mean that the Leafs are forced to play small-ball. If they trade for a defenseman I see that being a bigger deal, but at the end of the day they may have to hope that a healthy Jake Muzzin shores up the back end and settle for some goalie depth. Surely it wouldn’t take too much to pry 40-year-old Craig Anderson out of Buffalo, would it?

Tampa Bay Lightning

It’s not too often that a team gets a shot at a three-peat. After seemingly being in big trouble with the cap last off-season, the Lightning deftly let go of their entire third line and Tyler Johnson, and remarkably formed a passable bottom six forward while spending less than $6M (yes, I mean in total). Logically then, that is the area they’ll look to address, while continuing to be creative with their money. While they don’t have much in the form of prospects to offer, they do have all of their first-round picks, and with the core group they’ve got I doubt they’re too worried about those. Look for them to use one of those picks and maximize every aspect of the deal. A name I’ve heard connected to them is Tyler Motte from Vancouver, but they could also take a bigger swing and no one would be surprised.

New York Rangers

The Rangers are in an unbelievably unique position, having over $32M in deadline cap space despite already having a good team. It’s completely insane that a contender could have this much room, and it’s because they have a ton of roster players on entry-level contracts, and a couple of big extensions (including an $8.5M raise for Adam Fox) on tap for next year. This means that while they could shoot for players with term, the more conservative move would just be to absolutely load up on guys whose deals are expiring, which is why I mentioned them in connection with both Giordano and Kessel. With a middle-six forward and a defenseman still on their wish list after they picked up Frank Vatrano, there are any number of other possibilities as well, including Winnipeg’s Andrew Copp. No matter what, they would be foolish to not try and capitalize on this opportunity to raid the rental market.

Florida Panthers

God, I hate the Atlantic Division. Florida has a few raises kicking in next year (Alexander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Keith Yandle’s buyout cost), so they are another team that should be targeting expiring deals. They’re also playing some inspired hockey right now, but they know they’re going to have to make it out of the best division in the game if they want to make a deep run this year. With incredible depth among their forwards, their defense corps will likely be the point of emphasis among their trade targets, and while I’ve already mentioned Chiarot, there are some far more affordable targets as well. As wild as it is, I could see PK Subban making an appearance in the Sunshine State if they can execute a three-team deal and only have to pay 25% of his salary.

Minnesota Wild

With some of these other teams, I’ve mentioned that they should make trades because they’re playing well, or have raises kicking in next year, putting them in win-now mode. The Wild are in a similar boat but for different reasons. They’re a good team that hasn’t been playing well recently, and all of a sudden, they find themselves in a highly undesirable wild-card spot. They’re also going to be in cap trouble next year, but not because of a raise for a star. Due to the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, Minnesota is going to count $12.6M against the cap next year and $14.6M for the two years after that to watch those guys play for other teams. While they’ve been creative with their cap work so far, that will be a nearly insurmountable disadvantage for the next three years. To put it into perspective, that’s like Edmonton and Minnesota both trying to assemble teams with their remaining cap space, but Edmonton gets to start with Connor McDavid and doesn’t have to pay him. For this year, Minnesota has a chance and actually has some wiggle room at the deadline to pick up someone big (likely a forward), especially if they can convince a team to eat the remaining few months of Victor Rask’s contract.

Sources: nhl.com, capfriendly.com