2021 NFL Week 17
The COTY?
Week 17 is in the books, and after a Ja’Marr Chase supernova, the Bengals clinched the AFC North, and pushed the Titans into first in the AFC. As always, we were left with more questions: Is Trevon Diggs the DPOY? Can the Buccaneers receivers step up? Here’s that and more on Sportify’s Stats and Storylines of Week 17.
Chase(ing) History
After a dominant showing against the Chiefs, Ja’Marr Chase now holds the rookie receiving record with 1,429 yards. He also joins Randy Moss as the only player to record 1,200 receiving yards and 12 TDs at the age of 21.
Chase was incredible on Sunday, posting 11 receptions for 266 yards (also a rookie record) and 3 TDs. He generated an impressive 1.81 EPA per play and a ludicrous 25.3 total EPA on his targets.
Ja'Marr Chase finished with a rookie-record 266 receiving yards today, fueled by perimeter receptions and big YAC plays...
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 2, 2022
🔸 Outside the Numbers: 10 rec, 256* yards, 3 TD
🔸 Yards After Catch: 155 YAC, +105* YACOE
*Most in NGS Era (since 2016)#KCvsCIN | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/3HEWVtSlmq
Coming into the draft, Chase’s ability to create after the catch was a quiet feature of his game. It was on full display vs. the Chiefs. At the end of the first quarter, Chase catches a curl and proceeds to make two defenders miss and runs past seven Chiefs for the TD.
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) January 2, 2022
This next play is a non-box score stat, but a testament to Chase’s patience. He waits a half second to set up his blockers on this screen, which allows him to somehow convert the 1st down.
this was so cool to see from Ja'Marr Chase. Take the extra half second to help set up his blockers on the WR screen. pic.twitter.com/I2oVRoDfKd
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 3, 2022
Chase and Burrow’s chemistry is something special, and has completely changed the complexion of this offense.
The Diggs Discourse
The polarization of playstyle surrounding CB Trevon Diggs is puzzling analysts and amateurs alike. Don’t get me wrong, 11 interceptions is impressive and is certainly not a fluke, but a testament to his incredible ball skills. But aside from the turnovers, Diggs has been scorched in coverage:
A 33 year old AJ Green vs the best cornerback in the NFL [Trevon Diggs]
— CFBLIVE247 (@CFBLive247_) January 3, 2022
What a thing of beauty.. pic.twitter.com/fPCPJQZgDp
After Sunday, Diggs has now given up 1000 yards in coverage, which leads the NFL. He is the 5th most targeted CB in the NFL and is allowing the 5th most targets per target. The traditional box score metrics also correlate with the advanced ones. A staggering 45% of his allowed receptions go for either a 1st down or TD, of which he has allowed 5 TDs on the year. Diggs plays with such an all-or-nothing playstyle, that he is giving up an average of 18.2 yards on his allowed receptions.
I don’t think Diggs is a bad player, I think the coaching staff has encouraged the aggressive play due to how the defense operates. When you have a defensive front that can consistently get pressure, it’s only natural to play aggressive and have your eyes in the backfield. However, over the course of an entire season, that tape is out - and his aggressive style has been exploitable.
Bountyless Buccaneers
After the season-ending injury to Chris Godwin and whatever transpired with Antonio Brown, the Buccaneers receiving core has taken a massive blow. What was once heralded as the best receiving core in the NFL has quickly become an area of concern for Tom and the Bucs. Gronkowski and Evans are still present but I wanted to shed some light on some other players who could become pivotal to the Bucs’ playoff aspirations.
First up is WR Tyler Johnson, who made some splash plays as a rookie during the Buccaneers SB run. Coming out of Minnesota, Johnson was a 5th round pick in 2020, but has potential to secure his spot on this roster. Johnson played 66% of the offensive snaps on Sunday and recorded 4 catches for 50 yards on 6 targets.
Second up is WR Cyril Grayson Jr, who caught the game winning TD to survive the Jet upset. Cyril has had an incredible journey to the NFL. He didn’t play college football, but was a four time NCAA champion sprinter at LSU. Cyril was signed as a UDFA by the Seahawks in 2017 and bounced around the practice squads of the Colts, Texans, Bears, Saints, and Cowboys before docking in Tampa Bay in 2019. He is a true deep threat and on Sunday, he played 64% of the snaps and recorded 6 catches for 81 yards and a TD on 8 targets.
The Buccaneers may also pivot to more two TE sets as they also have Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, but it may depend on the matchup. They could also lean on more proven players like WRs Scotty Miller and Breshad Perriman. Overall, I don’t think the on-field void left by Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown can be filled, but someone needs to step up during the playoffs.
The COTY?
Titans HC Mike Vrabel has quietly put together a masterful season. While I still believe John Harbaugh is a strong candidate for COTY, it’s impossible to ignore what Vrabel and the Titans have done.
Despite losing their face of the franchise and offensive identity in Derrick Henry, and despite countless injuries to AJ Brown and Julio Jones, the Titans have gone 11-5 and are quietly in 1st place in the AFC. They have used a league-high 89 players this season and only 10 players have played every game this season. To get this level of consistency and performance from depth players is a testament to the Titans’ coaching prowess and leadership abilities. The Titans have the potential to secure the coveted 1st round bye going into the playoffs. With Derrick Henry slated to return, the Titans could be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
One Liners
- Joe Burrow is the only QB in NFL history who has had back to back games with 400+ yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs
- On Sunday vs. the Bears, QB Mike Glennon had more INTs than completions beyond the LOS
- Jets WR Braxton Berrios has seen a target on 32% of his routes this year
- Packers LB De’Vondre Campbell has reached 104 solo tackles with only 4 missed tackles so far this season (the only LB with 80+ solo tackles with under double digit missed tackles)
- Steelers’ Mike Tomlin has never recorded a losing season in his 15 years as a head coach
- T.J. Watt (21.5 sacks) is one sack shy of the NFL single season sack record
*References: nfl.com, PFF and theathletic