Super Wildcard Weekend Primer

The first weekend of playoff football is finally here! We here at Sportify give our weekly playoff picks as well as some stats and analysis for the upcoming matchups this weekend

Las Vegas Raiders (5) at Cincinnati Bengals (4)

By: John

In their previous matchup this year the Raiders were sloppy, and the Bengals smacked them around for it 32-13. Joe Mixon had 123 yards and 2 TD on 30 carries, Burrow was 20-29 for 148 yards, 1 TD, and a fumble; Ja’Marr Chase was even held to 3 REC for 34 YDS although he did catch a touchdown. Carr turned the ball over twice in that game and Josh Jacobs was kept under 80 yds from scrimmage and without a score. Darren Waller had 116 YDS on 7 catches as the lone bright spot for the Raiders’ offense, and the defensive line played well with 3 sacks, 5 QB hits and 7 TFL. The downfall for the Raiders this game was 7 penalties for 77 yards and 2 costly turnovers which the Bengals capitalized on. The score at the end didn’t appear close but the two teams total yards were CIN (288) and LV (278). If Las Vegas can clean up the sloppiness that cost them their earlier matchup they have a chance. Cincinnati is capable of scoring on big plays, changing the game from close to over in the blink of an eye. No one has been able to guard Ja’Marr Chase this year, Las Vegas will be relying on getting pressure with their front four (lowest blitz rate of any team this year at 12.1%). This offensive line in Cincy is suspect and Burrow has taken a serious beating all year. The loss of Riley Reiff only makes for tougher sledding in the pocket for the battered Burrow.

• Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue finished the season combining for 18.0 sacks, 78 pressures, 53 QB hits. The Raiders as a team finished 4th in the league in QB hits. Trey Hendrickson finished the season with 14.0 sacks, 27 QB hits, and 45 pressures; the pairing of Larry Ogunjobi and Sam Hubbard on the interior finished the season with a combined 14.0 sacks, 24 TFL, 64 pressures. The Bengals have a threatening pass rush.
• Joe Burrow was sacked 51 times this year, most in the league.
• The Bengals were 30th in pass block win rate at 49% The Raiders were 8th in the league in pass rush win rate at 44% per ESPN
• The Raiders were 30th in the league in turnovers forced and finished the season with a turnover differential of -9.
• The Bengals had the second most YAC/R in the league (6.4) and passed for the 11th most first downs (209). The Raiders, surprisingly, passed for the 8th most (217). The Raiders allowed the 7th most points in the league 25.8.

New England Patriots (6) at Buffalo Bills (3)

By: Tristan

It’s rare that we see two teams match up three times in one season, all of which will be under vastly different circumstances. The first meeting in week 13 saw the humiliation of the Bills rushing defense at home during a Belichick-conjured windstorm. The Patriots came out on top after attempting a whopping three passes, with the final being 14-10. Just three weeks later, it was the Bills chance at revenge. In Foxborough, Bills pulled away at the end thanks to a heroic Josh Allen performance and the final score ended up as 33-21.

Fast forward to the present and we have the Patriots heading to Buffalo on a night where it’s supposed to be frigid. Due to the nature of the teams’ playstyles, the weather is going to have a major impact.

The Patriots and Bills could not be built more differently on offense. The Patriots built from the trenches out and have a run-first mentality that sets up their screens and play-actions. With one of the best offensive lines in football, they have leaned into six offensive linemen formations this season and have been extremely effective running the ball all season. Quarterback Mac Jones, although underwhelming as of late, has shown incredible decision-making and accuracy for a rookie. The Bills however are a tough matchup for Jones, ranking 1st in pass defense DVOA. The Patriots’ offense will be dependent on game script, as if the Pats fall behind early, it will be difficult for the Patriots offense to make a comeback.

The Bills are a pass-first team that is built to spread defenses out to create passing and running lanes for their superstar Josh Allen. In their second matchup, Allen was doing it all, accounting for 23 of the team’s 28 first down conversions. He is a threat on the ground, and through the air - where there isn’t a throw he can’t make. Allen’s connection with wide receiver Stephon Diggs is phenomenal, but with Belichick’s insistence on taking out a team’s number one option the other receivers will have to step up. The return of Emmanuel Sanders is huge for this passing attack, but the Patriots pass defense ranks 3rd in defensive DVOA and will make things tough on the receivers all night. Their run game is an afterthought, but when supplemented by quick passes to Singletary, Moss and Breida, can provide a similar impact to soften up the defense. Their offensive line however, will be their Achilles’ heel this postseason and will have to play lights out vs. the Patriots’ dangerous front seven.

Both of these defenses are extremely well-coached and are sound in their respective schemes. The Bills run eight deep on the defensive line and have the best safety duo in the NFL with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The Patriots have a devastating front seven filled with versatility and a legitimate lockdown corner in JC Jackson. They also have the trump card in Bill Belichick, who has been the premier defensive mind in the NFL for some time now. This coaching matchup is filled with talent and should prove to be a masterclass in preparation and adjustments.

Philadelphia Eagles (7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2)

By: Amanjit

While all of us here at Sportify have predicted a Tampa Bay victory, this Eagles team may pose some problems for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The Eagles boast the best rushing offense in the NFL, where Tampa’s elite rushing defense has them at 3rd in the league in terms of yards allowed. Philadelphia’s best shot at a win is to keep the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands and continue to pound the ball as they have since coming out of their bye week this season (sure enough right after a 28-22 loss to the Buccaneers). Shifting their entire offensive philosophy and becoming a run-first team led the Eagles to a playoff berth, but when taking a look at the teams they’ve beaten this year it shows that the majority of their wins have come against sub .500 teams. When up against the better teams in the league, the Eagles haven’t been able to soar as high, as they went 1-7 against teams with records above .500. Their hopes will rest on the talents of Jalen Hurts who has impressed many with his play in his first full season as the Eagles starting QB, and first time HC Nick Sirianni who has taken what many believed to be a rebuilding Eagles roster, and turned them into playoff hopefuls.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a much higher seed than they were last season coming into the playoffs, where they had to play all of their NFC playoff matchups on the road on the way to their SuperBowl victory against the Chiefs. However, they come into this game with issues to address on both sides of the ball, with injuries and infighting leading to numerous absences. Just this week, they signed WR John Brown to their active squad, a move made in some desperation given the season ending injury suffered by Chris Godwin, and the release of Antonio Brown. Running back Ronald Jones II has been ruled out, with Leonard Fournette and Gio Bernard scheduled to return - but having spent the past few weeks injured, their effectiveness on the field remains to be seen. On defense, the Bucs have missed key contributors all year long and are coming into this game with key contributors such as JPP, Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David all having missed games towards the end of the regular season. While JPP and Barrett are intending to play, and with David returning to practice this week it may seem like their luck is turning, but the playoffs are about rounding into form at the right time and not piecing together an injury-ridden roster in the hopes that they will come good. Thankfully, Tom Brady and the offensive line have remained intact and the Bucs have a coaching staff with the experience to weather storms such as these, as exemplified by their 13-4 regular season record. I’m predicting a Tampa Bay victory, but Brady and HC Bruce Arians will have their work cut out for them if they are to make a deep playoff run, let alone beat an Eagles team that will not just roll over in this Wildcard matchup.

San Francisco 49ers (6) at Dallas Cowboys (3)

By: Cole

Dallas has the better quarterback in Dak Prescott, who just set a Cowboys record for passing TDs (37). The plethora of weapons surrounding Prescott resulted in Dallas being the league’s highest-scoring offense this season. Even with Michael Gallup out, the combination of Ceedee Lamb and Amari Cooper has been lethal and Cedric Wilson and Dalton Schultz have proven effective as well. On the ground, Zeke Elliott is good in the red zone (10 TDs) but has certainly lost a step over the years. Thankfully, the speed he lacks can be found in Tony Pollard. While both have dealt with injuries, they both appear to be as healthy as they have been in weeks, and when they are able to provide a change of pace, the Dallas offense becomes very difficult to handle. The rejuvenated defense of Dallas shocked many by forcing the most turnovers in the league in the regular season. Despite their propensity to give up big plays, they actually finished 2nd in pass defense DVOA. This is largely due to their creative pass rush, but this mostly comes into play on pure passing downs, and San Francisco rarely offers these looks. In fact, San Francisco is happy to run the ball of every down and ranked 5th in rushing offense DVOA. With Dallas ranking 16th in rushing defense DVOA, they are going to have to match the 49ers’ creative running with their own schemes on defense.

San Francisco is one of the league’s hottest teams entering the playoffs, having just completed a huge comeback against a strong LA Rams team last week. They run the ball as effectively as anyone and Kyle Shanahan has proven that he can force other teams into playing his way during the playoffs. Deebo Samuel has been one of the league’s best offensive players this season and Dallas may not have anyone capable of stopping him. A force in the air (77 receptions for 1405 yards and 6 TDs) and on the ground (365 yards, 8 TDs), few have been more useful than Samuel and Dallas will have to account for this. The rest of the 49ers offense, with Garoppolo at the helm and George Kittle, Elijah Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk acting as the secondary weapons, is not quite as impressive. On defense, the 49ers were quietly 2nd in rushing defense DVOA this season and Nick Bosa runs the show in the pass rush.

Overall, this is an exciting matchup as both teams are solid and as healthy as they’ve been all season. The Cowboys are better on paper, they’re at home, and they’ve shown their ability to win both lower-scoring games and shootouts, while San Francisco is rolling and made it to the Super Bowl just two years ago, so they know what it takes to win.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7) at Kansas City Chiefs (2)

“Let’s just go play and have fun” is not something that a starting QB who thinks his team is going to win might say, but it is what Big Ben said in a press conference on Wednesday. Here’s why:

*Week 16 game summary courtesy of ESPN

Arizona Cardinals (5) at Los Angeles Rams (4)

By: Cole

The Rams come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning 5 out of their last 6 games, with their one loss coming against a desperate 49ers team trying to make the playoffs in overtime. It’s likely the Rams chances of moving on will hinge on Matt Stafford’s ability to play a complete game. When Stafford has been on this year, he’s an MVP caliber QB, however, this is not always the Matt Stafford that shows up to the stadium. He’s been widely inconsistent throughout the entirety of his career and always seems to make a WTF decision once a game. Although the Rams’ defense hasn’t been as dominant as last year, they have stars on every level of their defense and have the 6th best run defense which allowed just over 100 yards per game on the ground during 2021. Rams also have the edge in coaching, I think any casual fan would take Sean McVay over Kingsbury 11 times out of 10.

The Cardinals however, enter the playoffs during their worst slump of the season losing 4 out of their last 5 games to close out the season. These are tough losses, the Cards lost to the 7-10 Seahawks in week 18 and the Lowly Lions (Trademark pending) who were dead last in the league at the time. Despite this, Arizona going on the road is a bonus for this team, as they’re 8-1 on the road this year including an October win over these same Rams in SoFi stadium. The Cardinals have put up 29.7 points per game on the road this year so the Rams defense will have their work cut out for them on Monday night. Look for the Cardinals defense to come up big here if Arizona hopes to win this game.They’ve been quietly one of the top units in the NFL this season, ranking 5th in passing defense and 6th in rush defense (DVOA). Two big injuries could have a big impact on this game, Cardinals all-pro receiver Deandre Hopkins is unlikely to play in this game, however, it’s possible that J.J Watt returns to the lineup.

*References: NFL, PFF, theAthletic