Superbowl 56 Primer
Writer Picks
Intro
By Amanjit Dhadwar
The SuperBowl is finally here, with the Cincinnati Bengals ‘officially’ playing host to the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi stadium… In LA… Yeah doesn’t make much sense to us either but neither does most of what goes on in the NFL. Take for example, the draft strategy of the Bengals, where instead of shoring up a porous offensive line, they decided to punt on conventional wisdom and drafted possibly the most elite rookie wide receiver ever in Ja’Marr Chase (please see meme below for reference). Well it turns out there’s an option C, where Burrow gets lit up and finds Chase regardless, so make of that which you will.
On the other hand, the Rams have decided that they’re not interested in the draft at all anymore, having traded what feels like every pick they’ll ever have for most of the star talent they possess on both sides of the ball. Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr, Matthew Stafford… Should this even be allowed?? They even brought back Eric Weddle!
A young up and coming team looking to make a name for themselves against an imposing veteran squad attempting to confirm their superstardom is a perfect overarching theme for a SuperBowl, but there are many storylines to keep an eye on. Will Joe Burrow be the first player in history to win a Heisman, CFP Championship and a SuperBowl title in just three years? Will Ja’Marr Chase win what is sure to be an absolute duel of the fates against Jalen Ramsey? Will Matthew Stafford banish the demons of his time with Detroit? Will Sean McVay be able to follow up his terrible performance in SuperBowl VIII by scoring more than just three points? Will Aaron Donald obliterate the single game Sack record against the terrible Bengals offensive- … You get the point. There’s a lot to talk about here, but one thing’s for certain, it’ll be a SuperBowl for the ages.
Rams offense vs Bengals defense
Let’s start with the Rams offense, who have undergone quite the transformation this year. With the arrival of Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay has unlocked a portion of his playbook that was blacklisted when former QB Jared Goff was under center. Over 2018, 2019 and 2020, McVay’s offenses relied heavily on play-action, ranking 1st, 2nd and 5th respectively. This season, the Rams had a 27.3% play-action rate which ranks only 22nd NFL. For context, their playaction rate in 2018 was 35.8%. Stafford’s talent has allowed the Rams to run more pure drop back-passing concepts, which was on full display during the regular season. This was evident in their formations and offensive tendencies this year, and is summarized perfectly by NextGenStats:
No offense utilized empty formations or 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) more often than the Rams or Bengals this season.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 8, 2022
Zac Taylor has diverged from Sean McVay's coaching tree in other offensive tendencies, such as utilizing more spread formations.#RamsHouse | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/xBUf2sXSI6
The two numbers that jump out to me are their use of trips formations (58%) and their formation width, meaning the receivers play closer to the offensive line. Both of these numbers are related to the bunch formation tendencies, as McVay does an excellent job of creating leveled front side concepts with three receivers, while having a lone receiver with lots of space to operate. Triple-crown winning receiver Cooper Kupp has thrived with Stafford under center and is primarily utilized on the trips side of the field and the slot, where he can create pseudo one-on–ones against defensive backs. The mid-season acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr. has given this team a true X (outside) receiver where he thrives on dig routes (the coveted backside dig).
While their passing attack is potent, the Rams have no problems throwing it back to 2018 with their under-center run game and downfield play-action passes. The return of Cam Akers from Dr. Frankestein’s lab has provided a legitimate threat at RB and not just a stop-gap. Akers brings a ton of juice in the run-game and has played a pivotal role up this postseason. Off play-action, Stafford was one of the best this year and has been able to push the ball downfield thanks to his arm talent. They’ve utilized tight end Tyler Higbee as the number one option on these play-action shots to great effect.
The Bengals defense has been the story of the postseason, and is the reason they’ve made it this far. While they lack true superstars, (no disrespect to Jessie Bates), they have constructed a solid defense of veterans through free agency who have incredible football IQ. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo deserves a ton of credit as it’s clear they are well-coached and have played an attacking style this postseason.
Schematically, the Bengals run basically everything: they are a base 2-4-5 team but also have three safety packages, along with some dime formations. The reason they can be so flexible is the play of safeties Jesse Bates and Vonn Bell. Bates has been an incredible safety for a few years now, and is one of the best center-field safeties in the NFL. His range and instincts allow the Bengals to play single-safety looks without exposing themselves (Bengals have given up 0 TDs and 4 INTs when in single high coverage this postseason). Vonn Bell has quietly emerged this year due to his versatility and plays a number of roles for this team, indicated by this graphic:
Vonn Bell Alignment Heatmap♟️
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) February 10, 2022
Bell demonstrated his versatility during the regular season, aligning at five different positions on at least 5% of snaps:
🔹 In the Box: 10% LOS, 25% LB
🔹 At Cornerback: 14% slot, 5% wide
🔹 On the Back End: 45% safety#SBLVI | #RuleTheJungle pic.twitter.com/TxrA7txR1w
Their corners are solid, with Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton playing better than anticipated. The only weak spot is Eli Apple, who is going to see a healthy dose of Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. As a collective, the secondary has played incredibly deep this postseason in an effort to limit the big plays. Up front, the Bengals have multiple looks, playing primarily four defensive linemen, but often motion a linebacker to the LOS on run downs. Defensive tackle DJ Reader has been a force of nature recently and edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has certainly been worth his new contract. While their linebackers are solid (big fan of Logan Wilson), they can struggle in space and this is where I see the Rams can take advantage.
The Rams offense can utilize their under-center run game and play-action to keep this defense at bay. Obviously this is contingent on being able to run the ball, but if the Rams can be consistent on the ground, this can open up shots over the middle and deeper down the field as the safeties creep down. Higbee is usually huge on play-action concepts and will be missed if he cannot go. The Bengals defense can gain an edge by pressuring Stafford with as few guys as possible (he has punished blitzing defenses all season), and to implement more drop-eight coverages like they did against Patrick Mahomes. Stafford ranked 26th in EPA/play against drop-eight looks and might be the key to this game for the Bengals.
Bengals Offense vs. Rams Defense
The Bengals offense consists of some of the best skill-position players in the NFL, some stop-gaps at offensive line, and the coolest man on Earth. Second year quarterback Joe Burrow has erupted this season, making his case of being a top five quarterback in the NFL. Although he doesn’t have the same level of arm talent as Mahomes or Allen, Burrow is still a great athlete who can make all of the throws. He has a tremendous football IQ which allows him to process information instantly. Burrow’s biggest strength also happens to correlate perfectly with the Bengals biggest weakness; their offensive line. His pocket presence is other-worldly and was a huge factor in their comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Even when you do hit him, this man is unfazed and never seems to get rattled by anybody.
Much of the attention has fallen on the shoulders of star rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase (rightfully so), but as teams have opted to double team Chase, second-year receiver Tee Higgins has thrived. Each of their receivers have unique skill-sets that are extremely complementary to one-another. Ja’Marr Chase is their deep-threat, their RAC guy…he’s just good at everything. Higgins is their contested-catcher, a big-bodied receiver who thrives downfield, and Tyler Boyd is the slot guy who has incredible quickness in and out of his breaks. Tight end CJ Uzomah has become a great security blanket for Burrow and if he can’t play, I’d expect Boyd to see more targets. Their run-game is decent, but tendency driven, as they consistently run on 1st down when under-center and rarely run out of shotgun. Joe Mixon has always been a great dual-threat back and has finally been healthy this year. He is also another great checkdown option for Burrow and always fights for extra yards.
The Bengals offensive line is the Achilles heel of Joe Burrow. Unbenouced to me, they managed to survive a nine sack performance by the Titans and now they are here. There isn’t much to say on this unit, they consistently let guys come through unblocked and are prone to missing assignments in the zone-run game. They face the best player in football: Aaron Donald, and it’s not going to be pretty.
Speaking of Aaron Donald, the Rams defense is intimidating to say the least. Built like a true NBA roster, the Rams have superstar players mixed in with role players. Their superstars are truly special, as Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsay are the best players at their respective positions. Von Miller isn’t too far removed from being the Super Bowl 50 MVP and Leonard Floyd is playing the best football of his career. This defensive line is devastating on paper and will make Burrow’s life hell. Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris loves to scheme up one-on-one matchups upfront by rushing five guys, but I’m not sure that is necessary in this one. Those guys are more than capable of getting pressure on Burrow with just four, maybe even three. Another interesting question is if Jalen Ramsey is going to shadow Ja’Marr Chase all game. Ramsey is probably the only corner in the league who can cover him but ideally, the Rams will rotate between double teams and single coverage.
The Bengals’ offense is going to have a tough matchup in this game. As mentioned above, their offensive line is poor and the Rams defensive line is the best in the NFL. The way to counter this is quick-game which Burrow excels at. The Rams have also struggled against the run and the Bengals would be smart to run the ball in situations that fight their own tendencies. When Chase is being single-covered, Burrow still needs to take his shot because Chase is that good. Defensively, the Rams need to rush four and even sometimes three to avoid giving Joe anything easy. When they rush the passer, they need to crush the pocket, and give Burrow nowhere to escape. This is similar to what the Titans did and it should’ve won them that game. Whether it be bracketing Chase with a safety or removing him from the equation with Ramsey, you can’t let Chase get going.
Overall this SuperBowl is set to be an incredible matchup and one where I am completely impartial. If it’s Rams aggressive team building finally paying off, or Joe Brrr winning it all, I’ll be content.
*References: NFL.com, theAthletic, PFF